You Gov Regional Model Update 10th Dec 2017

Due to relative success of the model I created up the 2017 GE, based on modelling You Gov regional breakdowns (here), I have updated the model to reflect You Gov polls post GE up to 5th December 2017 (here). A full archive of You Gov data is here.

This is the result of most recent update:

Con 277 (-41)

Lab 302 (+40)

Lib Dem 15 (+3)

SNP 33 (-2)

PC 3 (-1)

Green 1 (nc)

Other 18 (+1)

Labour 24 seats short of a majority

Seat Changes by Region

London

Chipping Barnet – Change from Con to Lab
Richmond Park – Change from Con to Lib Dem

Rest of the South

Camborne and Redruth – Change from Con to Lab
Crawley – Change from Con to Lab
Hastings and Rye – Change from Con to Lab
Milton Keynes North – Change from Con to Lab
Milton Keynes South – Change from Con to Lab
Norwich North – Change from Con to Lab
Reading West – Change from Con to Lab
Southampton, Itchen – Change from Con to Lab
South Swindon – Change from Con to Lab
Stevenage – Change from Con to Lab
St Ives – Change from Con to LD
Thurrock – Change from Con to Lab
Truro and Falmouth – Change from Con to Lab
Watford – Change from Con to Lab

Midlands/Wales

Aberconwy – Change from Con to Lab
Broxtowe – Change from Con to Lab
Ceredigion – Change from PC to LD
Corby – Change from Con to Lab
Mansfield – Change from Con to Lab
Northampton North – Change from Con to Lab
Northampton South – Change from Con to Lab
Preseli Pembrokeshire – Change from Con to Lab
Stoke-On-Trent South – Change from Con to Lab
Telford – Change from Con to Lab
Vale Of Glamorgan – Change from Con to Lab

The North

Blackpool North and Cleveleys – Change from Con to Lab
Bolton West – Change from Con to Lab
Calder Valley – Change from Con to Lab
Carlisle – Change from Con to Lab
Copeland – Change from Con to Lab
Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland – Change from Con to Lab
Morecambe and Lunesdale – Change from Con to Lab
Morley and Outwood – Change from Con to Lab
Pendle – Change from Con to Lab
Pudsey – Change from Con to Lab
Southport – Change from Con to Lab

Scotland

Airdrie and Shotts – Change from SNP to Lab
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock – Change from Con to SNP
Glasgow East – Change from SNP to Lab
Glasgow South West – Change from SNP to Lab
Gordon – Change from Con to SNP
Lanark and Hamilton East – Change from SNP to Lab
Motherwell and Wishaw – Change from SNP to Lab
Stirling – Change from Con to SNP

Summary

Of course, all models carry the risk of being very wrong, especially calculated using mid-term data. Many oppositions have led mid term to have their leads evaporate away. Our politics currently looks to be very uncertain.

However, the results of the model reflects polling in general at that moment – not much movement, or any significant leads. These figures show that a GE held at the moment would lead to another minority government. Labour looks to be substantially short of the winning line, that is 326 seats.

How would Labour, 24 seats short of a majority, be able to sustain themselves in government in such difficult political times? The data suggests that working with the SNP would be the only way.

That is a whole new ball game with many questions.

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